What do the COVID numbers tell us?
The United States leads the world in the total number of Covid-19 cases with over 1.3 million incidents and attributable deaths of more than 78,000. That's because we are a big county (but not the biggest). Before we compare our numbers with other countries it is well to recognize that the counts are done in different ways and for different reasons. Nevertheless, the numbers are telling.
The numbers that really count are those that compare the case rate with the population - say, as the New York Times does in presenting cases and deaths per 100,000 people. Today, May 10, American cases per hundred-thousand is 402. This case load exceeds that of all other major countries except Spain (479) and Belgium (460) along with some mini- and micro-states and others with populations of a few million. Canada, our neighbor to the north has an incidence rate 183, less than half of ours.
What the American case rate of 402 means is that there is coronavirus case for every 248 Americans coast to coast. To see it another way, it means that there will be one reported virus case on every jam packed New York City subway car. In the city itself with a case rate of 2234, it means that there will be one virus case out of 45 people in each subway car with everyone seated and few seats to spare.
The United States death rated per 100,000 is 24. That means that one out of about every 4,200 has died from the coronavirus. The death rate is not nearly as bad as some numbers we can probably trust: Belgium (76), Spain (57), Italy (50), UK (48), France (39). But we are catching up. Canada's death rate is 12.7, about half of ours.
What about the Swedish experiment in which social distancing is less stringent than its nordic neighbors? Sweden's incident rate is 225 - much less than ours - but greater than Denmark (178) and Norway (152). The Swedish death rate is 32 per hundred-thousand - greater than our, and much greater than in Denmark (9) and Norway (4). We'll be able to tell us if the Swedish economy was saved in relation to Denmark and Norway. And if so, what will be the cost in human lives.
Today, just the facts. In the coming days and weeks I will comment on how Americans are addressing the COVID crisis at various levels of government and as individuals. Meanwhile, everyone stay well.
The numbers that really count are those that compare the case rate with the population - say, as the New York Times does in presenting cases and deaths per 100,000 people. Today, May 10, American cases per hundred-thousand is 402. This case load exceeds that of all other major countries except Spain (479) and Belgium (460) along with some mini- and micro-states and others with populations of a few million. Canada, our neighbor to the north has an incidence rate 183, less than half of ours.
What the American case rate of 402 means is that there is coronavirus case for every 248 Americans coast to coast. To see it another way, it means that there will be one reported virus case on every jam packed New York City subway car. In the city itself with a case rate of 2234, it means that there will be one virus case out of 45 people in each subway car with everyone seated and few seats to spare.
The United States death rated per 100,000 is 24. That means that one out of about every 4,200 has died from the coronavirus. The death rate is not nearly as bad as some numbers we can probably trust: Belgium (76), Spain (57), Italy (50), UK (48), France (39). But we are catching up. Canada's death rate is 12.7, about half of ours.
What about the Swedish experiment in which social distancing is less stringent than its nordic neighbors? Sweden's incident rate is 225 - much less than ours - but greater than Denmark (178) and Norway (152). The Swedish death rate is 32 per hundred-thousand - greater than our, and much greater than in Denmark (9) and Norway (4). We'll be able to tell us if the Swedish economy was saved in relation to Denmark and Norway. And if so, what will be the cost in human lives.
Today, just the facts. In the coming days and weeks I will comment on how Americans are addressing the COVID crisis at various levels of government and as individuals. Meanwhile, everyone stay well.
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